Friday, November 07, 2008
I know that this sounds like "he is only covering his ass because the Republicans lost," but in a strange way I am glad McCain lost. Why? Look at 1928.
Let's go back to that election, between Al Smith and Herbert Hoover. Imagine, for a moment, that Hoover lost to Smith, albeit narrowly. Economy-wise, there would not have been much difference between the two, and thus the stock market would have crashed in October 1929 no matter who was President. What would Smith have done differently in the aftermath? Raise taxes? He certainly wouldn't have lowered them. He would have had Congress spend more, but, overall, the Depression would have hit and there would have been little Smith could do.
In 1930, the Democrats would not have won the Congress, and, in 1932, the GOP could have run on "we had prosperity in the 1920s under Harding and Coolidge, but we turned it over to the Democrats and look what they have done." So, in 1932, the Republicans would have won (was there a strong GOP governor to run?)...there would have been no FDR, and we would not have been shut out of the White House until 1952.
So, the lesson here is that sometimes you "win" by "losing." Watch the news, read the papers: things are going to get much worse in the coming year. Much worse. And the deficit is poised to explode. The international situation in the world will be horrific, what with Afghanistan falling apart, Iran poised to get a nuke, Israel fighting terrorists (and Netanyahu saying he will stop peace talks if he wins the prime ministership), and the world plunging into an economic quagmire. Add that to the moves Obama will make against guns and for gays in the military (as he makes the same mistake Clinton did in his first days in office), and you have a man who, in 2010, will be as unpopular as the clap.
If the GOP plays its cards right, and stands back and allows the Dems to make fools of themselves in the majority (as they did in 1993-94 with a Dem in the White House), we can run in 2010 on "Obama and Pelosi and Reid: Triple Doom for America," and we can possibly take back the House and win a good number of seats in the Senate. And then we can run against Obama in 2012 on "the do-nothing Obama."
Remember that Obama, in 2008, got only 400,000 votes more than Kerry did in 2004. Many of those were independents who took a chance on an unknown who promised "change" and "hope." If by 2012 the economy is in bad shape, as I suspect it will be, those 400,000 and even more will peel away or stay home, and Obama will be a one-termer.
As I said: sometimes you "win" by "losing." Ask the Democrats in 1928 how true that is.