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Saturday, July 12, 2008

Newsweak Poll Shows Obama "Bounce" Has Vanished

Harken back with me, if you can, just three weeks ago, to the 20 June 2008 edition of Newsweak, which calls itself "a magazine" but is in fact a shill for Barack Obama.


Barack’s Bounce
The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.

Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country’s direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

Unfortunately for Newsweak, it was soon discovered that they weighted their poll with far more Democrats than Republicans. The poll, however, played well into the MSM's theme of "President we come!"

Flash forward three short weeks (21 days for you liberals), and now the dimwits at Newsweak did another poll, trying to find more gold for Barack Obama. Instead, they found out that Obama is dropping in popularity faster than OJ Simpson did in 1994.

Glow Fading?
The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by only 3 points. What a difference a few weeks can make.

A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.

Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.

More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.

Ouch! So, to sum up:

According to Newsweak, Obama lost 7 points in one month, and McCain gained 5 points in that same period.

The next few paragraphs from this hilarious story illustrates the disease known as "liberal stoopidity":

Obama's overall decline from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, published June 20, is hard to explain.

Not really. The numbers in that first poll were ridiculous, and couldn't be sustained. Further, Obama has spent the last three weeks opposing oil drilling and attacking McCain with no program to do anything for the American people. $4.20 gas will do that.

Of course, what Newsweak and the rest of the MSM won't tell you is that only 50% of Hillary Clinton's supporters are for Obama, while the rest are for McCain or are undecided. That is fatal.

Newsweak also won't tell you that whites are moving away from Obama, because he talks down to them; then, again, Obama talks down to everyone, blacks included. He has a real problem with looking down at people with his Pinocchio nose.

The worst thing going for Obama, however, is the "Douglas Wilder Effect" - it is what happens when black candidates run for office. When Douglas Wilder ran for Governor of Virginia in 1989, the polls had him with a 15 point lead on election day, yet he only won by less than 1 percent. What happened? Pollsters realized that many white voters who said they would vote for Wilder in fact said that to make themselves feel better about publicly saying they would vote for a black candidate - a form of "white guilt" from the electorate. None of the polling organizations today have factored into the 2008 race the "Wilder Effect," which did show up in the Downie primaries to some effect - for instance, in the New Hampshire primary, polls showed Obama with a 7 point lead, but he lost by 5 points...a 12 point difference. Pollsters who are honest (and don't weight their polls toward one side or the other) do not get things like that so wrong. So, it appears that Obama is actually about 2-3 points higher nationally, and perhaps more state-by-state, than he will actually get. All of which means that Obama is polling about 42-45% rather than 45-48%, nationally. State by state is another matter.

But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month.

Yep - more elitism from Newsweak. McCain is rising because people want drilling off our coasts to find oil, even if this is not a short-term fix for high fuel prices. Obama saying "no" has cost him dearly - and now he cannot change that view. He will sink or swim with it.

McCain leads with independents, 41-34.

If Obama cannot win more than 80% of Democrats, and loses independents, he is toast - and no amount of media fawning will stop that.

In conclusion, if Newsweak is showing things this bad for Obama, when he should have a real 10-15 point lead, the Downies are in far more trouble than anyone has stated. And that is music to our ears.

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