Monday, April 02, 2007
Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble, whether she knows it or not. As we have predicted here time and time again, she will win the Downcaster nomination, but a new poll shows that 50% of the American people will "never" vote for her.
That means that she will have to get every other vote just to stay even. And she is not getting every other vote.
Fifty Percent of U.S. Adults Would Not Vote for Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Candidate for President
Senator Hillary Clinton is still the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States according to recent polls, even as Senator Barack Obama gains ground on her in the race. However, according to a new Harris Poll, half of U.S. adults say they would not vote for Senator Clinton if she was the Democratic candidate, while only 36 percent say they would, with 11 percent unsure. Her own party is not unanimously behind her either, as 21 percent of Democrats say they would not vote for her. In the all-important contest for Independents, 48 percent say they would not vote for Senator Clinton, while 37 percent say they would.
Gender also plays an important role. While one would expect that women would be more likely than men to lean towards Senator Clinton, this is not the case as 38 percent of women and 34 percent of men both say they would vote for her. Even among women there is a divide as four in 10 (41%) single women say they would vote for Senator Clinton, compared to 36 percent of married women. Over half of both men (56%) and married women (52%) say they would not vote for her for president.
So, our latest prediction is this: Hillary Clinton gets about 43-45% in the general election. Whoever the Republican candidate is will get about 54-56%, and if so will be the next President and have a Republican Congress and Senate to boot.
Check back in November 2008 to see how right we are now.