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Friday, September 15, 2006

The Media and Polls: Lies, Distortions, and a Lack of Reality

Time after time, we have shown how when President Bush's job approval ratings have dipped down, the American media whores start their stories on the poll numbers with "President Bush's approval ratings continue to plummet," as if going from 35 to 33 percent is "plummeting." Yet, somehow, when the President's numbers go from that same 33 to 40, or 42, percent, the media whores either ignore the numbers or mention them along with "but so and so number of people are against the war in Iraq."

In 2006, we find the same thing happening with the mid-term election numbers. Earlier this year, polling showed bad news for Republicans in the House and Senate: the American people wanted a change, the media said. Downies were heavily favored to regain control of the House, make a run for the Senate, blah blah blah. You could see the smiles on the faces of the reporters and news readers as they told of the impending implosion of Republican rule in Washington.

Well, a funny little thing happened to those hopes and dreams of the leftist American media: the American people turned on a dime and said "Whoa! Wait one minute there! We haven't elected the Downies to anything yet!" Starting in July, the terrible numbers for the GOP turned north for them and south for the Downies; in August the trend continued, and now, in September, the two parties are at parity...in short, the chances of a Downie takeover are significantly less than 2 months ago. But does the media announce this? Of course not. Because - poor schmucks that they are - they realize that in 2004 they had George W. Bush defeated in April, May, and June, only to see him win a second term in November. They had Speaker Nancy Pelosi all but assured on Memorial Day; by Labor Day she was back to being "Minority Leader Pelosi."

Poor Downies. Relying on the media whores once again, they got hoisted on their own pitard.

Gallup Poll Offers Hope for House GOP

The September consensus: nearly unanimous. “Voter anxiety over the economy, health care and financial security,” the Washington Post’s Dan Balz observed, “threatens to put Republican candidates across the country on the defensive this fall.” Veteran Congress watcher Stuart Rothenberg predicted “a heavy-damage scenario for the Republicans.” The House minority leader even guaranteed that “we’re going to win the House back.”

Those prognostications were made in September 2002, before the last mid-term election, and they were all wrong. Far from incurring irreparable political damage, House Republicans spent September and October rallying their political base—then regained control of the Senate and picked up three House seats.

Four years later, Republican lawmakers are again facing ominous headlines: “GOP’s Hold On House Shakier” (Los Angeles Times), “GOP Seen to Be in Peril of Losing House” (New York Times) and “More GOP Districts Counted as Vulnerable: Number Doubled Over the Summer” (Washington Post). Balz again offered an ominous assessment of Republican prospects, attributing the Republicans’ dire political straits to “President Bush’s low approval ratings, the sharp divisions over the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with Congress and economic anxiety caused by high gasoline prices and stagnant wages.” With independent voters “alienated” and the Democratic base “energized,” once-safe Republican incumbents are now “on the defensive.”

Ignored was a Gallup Poll released in late August that found an unexpected tightening in what pollsters call the “generic ballot” question: “If the election were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?” Pundits looking to assess the national mood regularly cite the results of this question, and did so promiscuously earlier this year when Democrats enjoyed seemingly insurmountable advantages such as 54% to 38% in late June, or 51% to 40% immediately before Congress’ August recess.

But then something happened as lawmakers spent August reconnecting with their constituents. The advantage for the generic Democratic candidate slipped from 11 points in late July, to nine points in early August, and then to a statistically insignificant two points (47% to 45%) in its August 18-20 survey. Among those most likely to vote, moreover, the Democrats’ advantage disappeared entirely, with Gallup reporting a dead heat: 48% to 48%.


The question to be asked is: how did the landscape change? Well, it began in late July - so, what happened in July/August? "Creepy" Ned Lamont beat Joe Lieberman in the Downie primary in Connecticut, that's what. That may not have been the whole catalyst, but the thought that Lieberman, a center-left Downie, could be defeated by a far left anti-war nutjob scared the shit out of independents and Republicans who had thought of staying home. Further, the news that Muslims in Britain were out to blow up 10 US airliners out of England made more of these voters realize that the Downtrodden Party offers nothing for this country but defense of terrorists' rights and wobbliness on security of the homeland.

Of course, these numbers could change again, and the GOP could still lose one house or both. But the overwhelming advantage held by the Downies 2 and 3 months ago is gone, and the American media, delusional and in the hip pocket of the Left, won't tell you that, because it makes them look bad.

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