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Sunday, July 02, 2006

The Australian: How the Downies in the US Blew the Iraq Issue

The Australian newspaper has printed this editorial from Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan, demonstrating why, in the past few weeks, the Downies have flushed the Iraq issue down the toilet and are now on the defense when it comes to the issue of national security.

With the left in the shape it is in, who wouldn't have predicted this? But to fall so far, so fast...

On Iraq, things are finally looking up for US Republicans

A strange thing has happened to the Iraq debate in the US in the past couple of weeks. The political momentum has swung back to the Bush administration and the congressional Republicans and away from the Democrats and other critics of the US-led Coalition operations in Iraq, of which Australia is part.

Partly it is events: the death of al-Qa'ida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the formation of a full, democratic Iraqi government representing all of the main communities. Partly it is political tactics, such as Bush's visit to Iraq last month. More important was the recent congressional debate on Iraq. The Republicans went on the political offensive. They passed motions supporting the US military effort. This had the effect of flushing the Democrats out, exposing their divisions and the hollowness of their alternative policies.

The party's last presidential candidate, senator John Kerry, moved an amendment calling for all US troops to be out of Iraq within a year. It was crushed in the Senate, with most Democrats voting against it. Kerry's action was a gift to Bush and the congressional Republicans. It seemed to validate the Bush argument of 2004 that Kerry would have been a dangerous president. Even the ultra-liberal Los Angeles Times castigated the Democrats, saying they are sending a message to American voters that they are unreliable on national security. The Republicans have moved the debate back to much more favourable ground as far as they are concerned. They want the debate to be about the future -- what do we do now? -- rather than whether it was right or wrong to go into Iraq in the first place.

The US debate about Iraq at times seems almost as complex as Iraq itself. Everything is happening in the context of the November congressional elections, where Democrats believe they have a realistic chance of taking back the House of Representatives and an outside chance of taking back the Senate. Even greater is the shadow of the wide-open presidential election in 2008, with no incumbent, or incumbent vice-president, running. This has happened only once before since World War II.

But uncertainty about how Iraq will play in November and later in the presidential election is leading most Democrats to adopt a small-target strategy, as they seek to avoid saying anything that will distract from the administration's woes.

This strategy has three problems. It does not provide a coherent alternative program for Iraq. It falls apart if things look up for Bush in Iraq. And it risks looking lukewarm in its support for US troops in the field. Iraq is full of dangers for Republicans. The polls are still very difficult for them. But the past few weeks have shown that Iraq holds plenty of dangers for Democrats too.


Just a few weeks ago, the MSM in the US barked daily not on if, but when, the Downies took control of Congress.

Those stories have stopped dead cold. The polls show it, the faces of the Left show it, and their strategy for failure shows it.

Although things can change - as they always do in American politics - do not be surprised if the Downies fail to capture either House in November.

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