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Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Michael Barone Puts Out the Downies' `We Will Take Congress Back in November' Fire

Michael Barone, author of "The Almanac of American Politics," examines the 2006 midterm elections, and finds that things are not as rosy as Downies paint them, and not as dismal for Republicans as the MSM paints it for them, either.

Shocking...the MSM is wrong? Wow.

The Lessons of 1994

In this cycle, many reporters have been contemplating the possibility that Democrats will take it back this November. That's partly because most reporters are Democrats and find that result congenial. More important, Democrats can take control with a net gain of only 15 seats this year, while Republicans needed 40 in 1994 (and got 52). It's always easier to see how a party can gain 15 seats than 40 — although 1994 was the only time in the past 20 years that any party gained more than 10.


Democrats' chances of taking those 15 seats are not very good — if the voting patterns and political contours that have held steady since the 1995-96 budget showdown continue to prevail. Ordinarily in a decade we see a shift in these patterns. Some geographic regions or demographic groups move to one party or the other, or the whole electorate does. But that hasn't happened in the past 10 years. In the five House elections starting in 1996, Republicans have won between 49 and 51 percent of the popular votes, Democrats between 46 and 48.5 percent of the popular votes. Nor have regional patterns changed much. From 1990 to 1996, the nation's largest metro areas became more Democratic while rural areas and the South became more Republican. Since then, things have stayed about the same. And this is regardless of whatever problems were facing party leaders like Bill Clinton, Gingrich, and George W. Bush.


Barone has yet to see any "wave" of support for either party - something, he says, which is needed for one party to take control from the other.

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