Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Charlie Cook: Don't Listen to the Polls Showing a Republican "Collapse"
Pollster and political analyst Charlie Cook has looked at the polls, and he does not see a "wave" against the Republicans - in fact, he sees that it will take a minor miracle for the Downies to somehow take control of one house of Congress, much less both.
The GOP's Many `Micro' Advantages
Cook shows that instead of "national polls," the state-by-state and race-by-race polls show that Downies would have to win every race with an open or contested Republican seat, while at the same time holding every single one of their open or contested seats. Cook believes that it is doable, but that he sees no wave showing a major move to the Downies.
This differs from the MSM, while tells us all each passing day that the Republicans are finished. And they report this in March, 7+ full months before the actual election.
Pollster and political analyst Charlie Cook has looked at the polls, and he does not see a "wave" against the Republicans - in fact, he sees that it will take a minor miracle for the Downies to somehow take control of one house of Congress, much less both.
The GOP's Many `Micro' Advantages
Despite national political trends indicating that the GOP is in serious trouble, a race-by-race "micro" analysis suggests that Democrats cannot easily seize control of the House or the Senate this fall.
In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of six seats. Republicans are truly fortunate to have only one senator retiring, Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee. Although Democratic Rep. Harold Ford is a talented candidate, he will have his work cut out for him against the winner of a competitive three-way August GOP primary for Frist's seat. The South has become a GOP stronghold. In 2004, Democrats went 0 for 5 in attempting to hold open Senate seats in that region
Democrats need to win in Tennessee and knock off five GOP incumbents. Only five look truly vulnerable: Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Jim Talent of Missouri.
Cook shows that instead of "national polls," the state-by-state and race-by-race polls show that Downies would have to win every race with an open or contested Republican seat, while at the same time holding every single one of their open or contested seats. Cook believes that it is doable, but that he sees no wave showing a major move to the Downies.
This differs from the MSM, while tells us all each passing day that the Republicans are finished. And they report this in March, 7+ full months before the actual election.
